10 Feb 2009

Estimating finish time for the Grizzly

Method 1 - minutes per mile

On a long run (more than 10 miles) I try to achieve 12 minutes per mile so that gives me a time of 240 minutes or 4 hours

Method 2 - Double last years winning time

Last year the winning time was 2:24 so that is a time of 4:48 for me. This is probably more realistic but unfortunately gives some indication of the terrain to be expected.

Method 3 - 90th percentile

This feels like the most depressing method, by what time have 90 percent of the competitors already finished. Look at the results from last year again this gives me 4:51.

So from all this I think my target should be 5 hours.

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