Estimating finish time for the Grizzly

Method 1 - minutes per mile

On a long run (more than 10 miles) I try to achieve 12 minutes per mile so that gives me a time of 240 minutes or 4 hours

Method 2 - Double last years winning time

Last year the winning time was 2:24 so that is a time of 4:48 for me. This is probably more realistic but unfortunately gives some indication of the terrain to be expected.

Method 3 - 90th percentile

This feels like the most depressing method, by what time have 90 percent of the competitors already finished. Look at the results from last year again this gives me 4:51.

So from all this I think my target should be 5 hours.

That 3 weeks before an event feeling

As usual with only a few weeks to go till the Grizzly I look back at my training and realise I have not done enough. After a long run by myself on Sunday I went out today with the runners from work in the pouring rain.

Well you can only do what you can, last week was a bit of a wash out because of the snow (should that be snow out).

A post on PTC* Blog has convinced me that my next sac is going to be a Villain. I think it would be perfect for our trip to the Black Mountains in a couple of weeks.